Hamburger SV (home)
- Hamburger SV are sitting in a solid mid-table position of 11th in Bundesliga 2025-2026 with 22 points from 20 matches, but their form under Merlin Polzin has been very strong since he took charge in November 2024.
- Polzin has set HSV up to be a disciplined, possession-based team that can control the ball in the middle of the field and patiently build up attacks from the back using the movement of striker Rayan Philippe and the surging runs of their wing-backs to create overloads.
- HSV’s home record of four wins, four draws and two defeats from ten Bundesliga games this term shows they are difficult to break down.
Union Berlin (away)
- Steffen Baumgart’s Union have been a tough team to crack since he took charge at the end of December 2024, but their away form could use some improvement.
- The visitors have won only three and drawn two of their last ten Bundesliga away matches, conceding an average of 1.70 goals per away game.
- Union have a compact, reactive set-up, sitting deep and hitting on the break when they can.
- Union’s attack has been blunt on their travels with only 1.00 goal per Bundesliga away match this season.
Head-to-Head
The last Bundesliga meeting between these clubs finished 0-0 four months ago and this will likely be another cagey, tactical game with mid-table points at stake.
Key Players
- Rayan Philippe - movement and link-up play are central to HSV’s patient build-up.
- Ilyas Ansah - aerial threat who finds pockets of space in transition and from set pieces.
Betting Insights
- HSV are available at 2.52 to win.
- Both teams to score is priced at 1.95 and looks expensive given both sides’ recent low-scoring tendencies.
- The Under 2.5 goals market at 1.73 looks a strong play here based on defensive structures and recent trends.
Prediction
- Expect a tight, low-scoring affair with Under 2.5 goals the primary call.
- HSV are the more likely winners based on recent form, defensive solidity and home advantage.
