Derby County
- Derby County have won three of their last five Championship matches (D1, L1).
- John Eustace has taken the Rams up a gear or two since replacing Wayne Rooney as coach in February 2025.
- His pragmatic, system-first approach, which revolves around trying to be solid and fast on the break, has given them a platform to build from and has seen them collect 3 wins, a draw and a loss in their last five.
- They are at their most dangerous when they can play at pace on the counter, which they can often do as they switch from a back-four to back-three system.
- They have won back-to-back games coming into this, however, which shows a team that now have a bit of momentum and belief.
Swansea City
- Swansea City have won three of their last five (D1, L1).
- Swansea are on the rise under Vitor Matos, who took charge of the Swans in November 2025.
- He has emphasized structure, possession and team pressing, but without a target man, the team have struggled to break teams down.
- The Swans have won four, drawn two and lost nine of their 15 away games this term, scoring just 0.93 goals per game and conceding 1.27 in return.
Head-to-Head
- Derby County won the reverse Championship fixture 2-1 away from home two months ago.
- Derby have won just one of their last three meetings with the Welsh side, but look to have the edge here in terms of league position, odds and reverse fixture result.
Key Players
- Zan Vipotnik has been a shining light for them this term with 15 goals in 29 league appearances, and has netted five of their last 10 goals in the past five games.
- Carlton Morris has been a revelation for the hosts with ten goals in 16 Championship appearances this season, and Patrick Agyemang has scored three of Derby’s last nine goals in the past five.
- Ben Brereton Diaz has also chipped in with three assists over the same five games.
Betting Insights
- Derby, in ninth with 45 points from 31 games, are three points better off than 15th-placed Swansea City (42 points) and are the slight favorites at 2.2, which looks just about fair.
- The visitors are 3.5 and a draw is 3.1.
- With both teams in decent form, taking the Under 2.5 goals market at 1.65 looks the way to go.
- Derby have scored an average of 1.19 goals per home game in the Championship this season and conceded 1.44.
Prediction
- Eustace will have his team ready to pounce on any mistakes made by the visitors, so we’ll take Derby to win the match.
- A home win with fewer than 2.5 goals looks a good option for the main wager.
