Atalanta (home)
- Atalanta Bergamo are unbeaten at home in this UEFA Champions League season (W2, D1).
- Raffaele Palladino has done a great job at Atalanta since taking over as head coach in November 2025, blending the high-octane attacking DNA of Gian Piero Gasperini with his own tactical nous.
- Palladino has kept the wing-back system that has been Atalanta’s bread and butter for the last few seasons firing on all cylinders, particularly at home.
- The hosts have conceded just 0.67 goals a game at the Gewiss Stadium in the UEFA Champions League and average 1.33 goals for.
- Nikola Krstovic has been in great form for Atalanta, scoring three of their six goals in the last five competitive matches, while Charles De Ketelaere is the team’s top scorer in the UEFA Champions League with two goals in five matches.
Athletic Bilbao (away)
- Athletic Bilbao have not won away from home in this season’s UEFA Champions League (D1, L2).
- Athletic Bilbao, meanwhile, have had a more mixed bag of results, winning one, drawing one and losing three of their last five.
- Ernesto Valverde has done a solid job since taking over at San Mames in July 2022, bringing structure and discipline to an Athletic side that have always been solid but lacked organisation.
- Athletic’s 4-2-3-1 formation is a compact one, but they have good width when the ball is in the attacking third and can be dangerous on the break.
- Mikel Jauregizar has been the creative hub for the visitors, providing two assists in six UEFA Champions League matches this season.
- Gorka Guruzeta is Bilbao’s main scoring threat, with three goals in their five UEFA Champions League games and three in their last five in all competitions.
Key Players
- Nikola Krstovic - scoring three of their six goals in the last five competitive matches.
- Charles De Ketelaere - team’s top scorer in the UEFA Champions League with two goals in five matches.
- Mikel Jauregizar - providing two assists in six UEFA Champions League matches this season.
- Gorka Guruzeta - three goals in their five UEFA Champions League games and three in their last five in all competitions.
Betting Insights
- Atalanta come into this game as 1.9 favorites, which seems like a good deal to us considering that Bilbao are 4.1 outsiders.
- The visitors average just 0.33 goals away from home in the UEFA Champions League this term, conceding 2.00 goals on average.
- Atalanta have more quality and depth and are the superior side in this fixture.
- However, Bilbao are a solid outfit and the Both Teams To Score market at 1.8 should be a sure bet in what should be a game with chances at both ends.
- There is a real contrast between these two teams in terms of style and approach, with Atalanta playing a high-risk, high-reward game with their back three and wing-backs and Bilbao playing a more conservative game with a focus on disciplined defence and quick counters.
Prediction
Atalanta’s form at home is better than Bilbao’s away from home and they should be able to edge the game.
