Vitória Guimarães B
- Vitória Guimarães B are in the top half of the Liga 3 promotion group on 14 points from 9 matches.
- Young tactician Gil Lameiras has done a fantastic job of balancing the need to develop young players with the need to get results at Guimarães B.
- Lameiras gets his players to play in a 4-2-3-1 formation with a strong emphasis on possession and tempo.
- They press well and recover the ball quickly to stay in the attacking third, which is a smart approach given the quality of players in the academy.
União de Santarém
- União de Santarém are in the bottom half on around 6 - 7 points from 8 - 9 matches and need a win to keep promotion hopes alive.
- Santarém are a much more pragmatic side with Carlos Fernandes favouring a three-at-the-back system that is flexible enough to play with wing-backs or wingers in wide areas.
- In either case, they compact the midfield, play deep and like to counter-attack quickly.
- Santarém have been on a bit of a rollercoaster lately with three wins and two defeats in their last five.
- They beat Mafra 3-1 in their penultimate game, but suffered a disappointing loss to Vitória Guimarães B in the midweek round of fixtures.
Head-to-Head
Vitória Guimarães B won 1 - 0 when these teams met in the reverse fixture away from home earlier this season.
Vitória Guimarães B
- Miguel Nogueira tops the goals charts for the club with a knack of popping up in the right place at the right time to score the goals that matter.
- Guilherme Paula has also shown he can contribute to the scoresheet from deep, but also provides a lot of assists, while his running in behind makes him a second threat in the attack.
União de Santarém
- Bruno Ventura has been their key outlet down the middle with three league goals so far and is usually the instigator of their attacks.
- Eberth Nogueira and Manu have both scored three apiece and Fernandes likes to get players forward in numbers, so they can be a real threat.
Betting Insights
- The odds of 1.77 for Vitória B to win make little sense for a home game against a lower-half club.
- Likewise, Santarém are big outsiders at 4.49 and the 3.5 draw price seems a touch high for what is a promotion game where every point counts.
- Our belief is that Lameiras’ men are the better side and have a home advantage to go with a better league position and a recent head-to-head win over their opponents.
- The under 2.5 goals market is very short at 1.7 but BTTS (both teams to score) is almost even and we think it’s a much better play, although the under price is tempting.
- We like BTTS better than under 2.5 goals in this contest.
Prediction
- We’ll support them to edge a close, competitive game with a 2-1 correct score forecast.
- We prefer BTTS over under 2.5 goals in this match.
