Hamburg (home)
- Hamburg have won 4, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their 9 Bundesliga home games, averaging 1.44 goals per game for and 1.00 goals per game against.
- Merlin Polzin’s Hamburger SV have been tough to beat at home recently, drawing their last 3 games at Volksparkstadion in a row, but both of the last 2 finished 0-0 with Borussia Moenchengladbach and St. Pauli.
Bayern Munich (away)
- Bayern Munich have won 8 and drawn 1 of their 9 Bundesliga away games this season.
- Bayern Munich have won 4 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches in all competitions, beating Union St.-Gilloise 2-0 in the Champions League last week before losing to a surprise 1-2 scoreline against FC Augsburg in the Bundesliga on Saturday.
- However, both of their previous 2 games away from home ended in victory, and it’s hard to see anything other than an away win on Saturday with the Bavarians such heavy favourites at 1.29.
Key Players
- Vincent Kompany’s Bayern are the most pressing, possession dominant side in the Bundesliga and have the firepower to make any team pay for any space behind their defensive lines.
- Harry Kane is on fire up front, topping the Bundesliga Golden Boot race with 21 goals in 19 appearances, while Michael Olise has been his creative spark, registering 6 assists in Bayern’s last 5 games in which they have scored 20 goals.
- Hamburg’s pragmatic 3-4-3 system sets them up to be compact and block the ball, with Albert Sambi Lokonga their top scorer this season in the Bundesliga with 4 goals in 14 games.
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Key players:
- Harry Kane - 21 goals in 19 appearances
- Michael Olise - 6 assists in Bayern’s last 5 games
- Albert Sambi Lokonga - 4 goals in 14 games
Betting Insights
- Kompany’s side have been so dominant on the road in the Bundesliga this term that it’s worth going for a Bayern win, but Hamburg’s 3-4-3 system should frustrate the visitors for periods of this game.
- Bayern are tactically flexible and can shape shift both in and out of possession, dominating both wide areas and the central channels, so it may take a while for them to get into the groove.
- Both teams to score at 2.35 and over 2.5 goals at 1.3 seem like the best bets here, given Bayern are averaging 3.56 goals per away game this term, while Hamburg are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per home game.
Prediction
Kompany’s side have been so dominant on the road in the Bundesliga this term that it’s worth going for a Bayern win, but Hamburg’s 3-4-3 system should frustrate the visitors for periods of this game.
