Shkendija
- Shkendija are second in the North Macedonian Prva Liga with 42 points from 18 matches.
- The club have been built around the 4-2-3-1 system that manager Jeton Beqiri favours, which involves a disciplined and compact shape with good discipline and high energy to punish mistakes on the counter.
- Midfielders Fiton Ademi and Liridon Latifi provide good energy and quality in the attacking midfield zone, while Fabrice Tamba is another player who could be a threat in the final third.
Samsunspor
- Samsunspor have suffered a tough spell in the last few weeks which has seen them drop in the standings in Turkey.
- A 3-0 defeat to Trabzonspor and a 3-1 loss to Antalyaspor are two of their recent results in a run of five games in which they have struggled for consistency.
- The club parted company with manager Thomas Reis after those results, and Thorsten Fink will now take charge of the team for this crucial knockout play-off.
Key Players
- Midfielders Fiton Ademi and Liridon Latifi provide good energy and quality in the attacking midfield zone.
- Besart Ibraimi is a creative force for Shkendija and tends to deliver in European fixtures.
- Chérif Ndiaye and Marius Mouandilmadji are Samsunspor’s primary goal threats.
- Carlo Holse is an imaginative player, but his availability is in doubt due to illness and other players will be out of the squad for this game.
Betting Insights
- The odds on the game are Samsunspor 2.0, Shkendija 3.65 and the draw 3.35, but the models and my analysis suggest the home side have a slight advantage for this first leg.
- Both Teams to Score is priced at 1.7, which is about right given the attacking potential and defensive frailties on both sides.
- There is a possibility that the cool, damp and windy conditions in Tetovo may make things tough for the more high-tempo Samsunspor.
Prediction
- Shkendija have been consistent all season and will be the more settled side heading into this match, while Samsunspor will be in flux and there are a few injuries that will play a part in the way the match pans out.
- The difference in recent form, the advantage of home field, and the uncertainty at Samsunspor means the slight home advantage is likely to be enough for a win or draw for Shkendija in this first match.
