Bahia
- EC Bahia have had a much better season than their visitors so far, currently sitting 7th in Serie A 2026 with 49 points from 31 games to São Paulo FC's 42 in 9th, but this Thursday's game isn't a slam dunk for the hosts.
- Rogério Ceni's men have been more consistent in their results and seem to have an all-around game, but their last five has yielded just two wins and three defeats in a disappointing run.
- Bahia have gone for it on the front foot all season under Ceni, playing a 3-2-5 variant with plenty of players involved in the build-up and high pressing to try and force turnovers.
- Bahia have won seven, drawn six and lost only three of their 16 home games in Serie A 2026, a solid platform to build on at the Fonte Nova.
- However, their last two results have been a 1-0 home win over Mirassol and a 3-0 home loss to Flamengo, suggesting they have been working for wins in recent weeks.
São Paulo
- São Paulo are a much more controlled team under Dorival Júnior, who came in on 15 May 2026 and has got the Tricolor playing a more possession-first, 4-2-3-1 structure with a couple of compact pivots in the first phase.
- This could be a battle of tempo between two sides that play very different styles.
- São Paulo are in much better form than Bahia going into this one with three wins and two defeats in their last five matches and they arrive on the back of a two-game winning streak.
- Their first was a 2-1 win at home to Vitória and they followed that up with a 1-0 victory over Vasco da Gama.
- The visitors have won just two, drawn three and lost ten of their 15 games on the road in Serie A 2026, so they're not good travellers at all.
Key Players
- Jonathan Calleri has been the sharpest edge of São Paulo's attack with two goals in the last five games.
- Luciano Juba has been Bahia's main spark with the same number of strikes during the same period.
- However, Juba has been responsible for two of the hosts' four goals in their past five so he is carrying a bigger responsibility to score.
Betting Insights
- Odds: Bahia are priced at 1.95 to take the victory, São Paulo are listed at 3.7, and the draw is 3.5.
- Both teams to score is available at 1.77 and under 2.5 goals is listed at 1.83.
- Bahia average 1.44 goals per home game in Serie A 2026, hitting 23 in total.
- São Paulo have conceded 22 on the road in Serie A 2026, an average of 1.47 per game.
- The visitors' poor away record (two wins, three draws, ten defeats from 15) could push them to play more cautiously and try to control tempo.
Prediction
- That's why we're leaning towards a victory for Bahia, albeit in a cagey match.
- Both teams to score at 1.77 is tempting, but we think the under 2.5 goals at 1.83 is the right bet here as the visitors will look to slow this one down.
