US Concarneau
- US Concarneau (3rd, 16pts from nine games) and SC Bastia (12th, 11pts from nine rounds) will not be strangers to each other after competing in Ligue 2 together during 2023/2024, the last meeting of which ended in a 2-0 home win for Bastia.
- Les Thoniers are still seeking their first win in the mini-series as hosts, but have a good chance to land it on Saturday.
- Stéphane Moulin has moulded Concarneau into a narrow, compact and well-drilled unit in 2026-2027, they operate from a solid platform, protect their backline, make fast and controlled transitions and counterattack with tempo.
- Their top-end edge has come from Stan Janno, the team's top goal-scorer in Ligue 3 2026/2027 with four in eight, but the fact that three of the team's last nine goals have come in their previous five games suggests that they are getting more from their structure.
- Concarneau's home record in Ligue 3 2026/2027 (Won 3, Drawn 1, Defeated 1) is much better than the league table suggests, they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and just 1.00 goals conceded at Stade Guy Piriou.
SC Bastia
- SC Bastia have slipped a little recently, with one win, two draws and two defeats from their last five in all competitions.
- Laurent Peyrelade has opted for a more aggressive set up for Bastia, playing in a 4-3-3 system, with a higher tempo, a proactive pressing system and wide overloads that push the game forwards.
- Bastia's away numbers in Ligue 3 2026/2027 are better than their table position suggests, winning three and losing one of their four games on the road, but they are also averaging just 0.75 goals per game on their travels.
Head-to-Head
- SC Bastia have won one and drawn one of the last two H2H clashes.
- US Concarneau (3rd, 16pts from nine games) and SC Bastia (12th, 11pts from nine rounds) will not be strangers to each other after competing in Ligue 2 together during 2023/2024, the last meeting of which ended in a 2-0 home win for Bastia.
Key Players
- Their top-end edge has come from Stan Janno, the team's top goal-scorer in Ligue 3 2026/2027 with four in eight, but the fact that three of the team's last nine goals have come in their previous five games suggests that they are getting more from their structure.
- Bastia's best chance of nicking a win will come from wide attacker Clement Rodrigues (3 goals in eight games) providing an end product to their good wide play.
Betting Insights
- Concarneau are the superior team on paper, but Concarneau are in better form so the odds on this game don't reflect the likely outcome very well with the home side at 1.89, Bastia at 3.9 and the draw at 3.12.
- We're going to support the hosts as we feel they are the more likely winner, but Bastia's good away record suggests that this will still be a close game.
- A solid alternative is Under 2.5 goals at 1.54, which certainly suits a game where Concarneau's shape can smother Bastia's attack and there will be little room for the visitors to create.
- Both Teams to Score - No at 1.7 is also a big price and has legs in a game where Bastia's best chance of nicking a win will come from wide attacker Clement Rodrigues (3 goals in eight games) providing an end product to their good wide play.
Prediction
- A clash of styles like this should make for a chess match, with Concarneau's solid structure and tempo-ready counter attacks up against Bastia's more vertical tempo and wide game.
- Bastia's latest results, a 1-0 defeat away to Paris 13 Atletico followed by a 1-1 draw at home to Orleans, suggests they have wobbled a bit of late and that's why we're supporting Concarneau to edge it here.
- We're going to support the hosts as we feel they are the more likely winner, but Bastia's good away record suggests that this will still be a close game.