CSKA Sofia
- CSKA Sofia's last five matches in all competitions have seen them win two, draw one, and lose two.
- PFC CSKA Sofia come into this game as the clear favorites at 1.33, while Derry City are huge underdogs at 8.6 and the draw is set at 4.8, which seems a little low for such a finely poised first-leg encounter in this UEFA Europa League qualification campaign.
- The hosts have been solid yet unconvincing of late, with a 2-0 defeat away to Levski Sofia, a 1-1 draw to Lokomotiv Plovdiv (won on penalties) and a 1-0 loss away to Ludogorets making up their last three games.
- Hristo Yanev's side are clearly a pragmatic outfit who set up in a 4-3-3 system but play in a vertical manner and focus on compact midfield work and quick turnovers to create danger.
Derry City
- Derry City's last five away matches in all current competitions have resulted in them winning zero, drawing two, and losing three.
- The Candystripes have struggled on the road recently, with a 1-1 draw away to Shamrock Rovers and a 2-0 win at home to Drogheda United making up their recent results.
- Lynch has been able to play an adaptable 4-2-3-1 or 4-3-3 system so far this term, but it's all based around central control, good width and a build-up structure to get the ball into dangerous areas.
- However, CSKA's vertical bursts and wide play should test the shape of Derry and Lynch's men aren't the sort of team to play with freedom, so this could get messy in the midfield.
Betting Insights
- CSKA Sofia's home record across all competitions is W1, D3, L1, and Derry City have struggled away from home, recording no wins, two draws and three losses in their last five away matches.
- The hosts have also averaged 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 goals conceded per home match in all games this term, so it's hard to see this turning into a high-scoring affair.
- As such, the Under 2.5 goals bet at 2.32 appeals, while Both Teams To Score - No at 1.85 could also be a good option in this clash of styles and structures.
Prediction
CSKA are the favourites and rightfully so, so the value will lie in the goal lines and a narrow home win is our correct score prediction in what should be a European-style game.
